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Statistics

12.4 Prediction (Optional)

Statistics12.4 Prediction (Optional)
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Table of contents
  1. Preface
  2. 1 Sampling and Data
    1. Introduction
    2. 1.1 Definitions of Statistics, Probability, and Key Terms
    3. 1.2 Data, Sampling, and Variation in Data and Sampling
    4. 1.3 Frequency, Frequency Tables, and Levels of Measurement
    5. 1.4 Experimental Design and Ethics
    6. 1.5 Data Collection Experiment
    7. 1.6 Sampling Experiment
    8. Key Terms
    9. Chapter Review
    10. Practice
    11. Homework
    12. Bringing It Together: Homework
    13. References
    14. Solutions
  3. 2 Descriptive Statistics
    1. Introduction
    2. 2.1 Stem-and-Leaf Graphs (Stemplots), Line Graphs, and Bar Graphs
    3. 2.2 Histograms, Frequency Polygons, and Time Series Graphs
    4. 2.3 Measures of the Location of the Data
    5. 2.4 Box Plots
    6. 2.5 Measures of the Center of the Data
    7. 2.6 Skewness and the Mean, Median, and Mode
    8. 2.7 Measures of the Spread of the Data
    9. 2.8 Descriptive Statistics
    10. Key Terms
    11. Chapter Review
    12. Formula Review
    13. Practice
    14. Homework
    15. Bringing It Together: Homework
    16. References
    17. Solutions
  4. 3 Probability Topics
    1. Introduction
    2. 3.1 Terminology
    3. 3.2 Independent and Mutually Exclusive Events
    4. 3.3 Two Basic Rules of Probability
    5. 3.4 Contingency Tables
    6. 3.5 Tree and Venn Diagrams
    7. 3.6 Probability Topics
    8. Key Terms
    9. Chapter Review
    10. Formula Review
    11. Practice
    12. Bringing It Together: Practice
    13. Homework
    14. Bringing It Together: Homework
    15. References
    16. Solutions
  5. 4 Discrete Random Variables
    1. Introduction
    2. 4.1 Probability Distribution Function (PDF) for a Discrete Random Variable
    3. 4.2 Mean or Expected Value and Standard Deviation
    4. 4.3 Binomial Distribution (Optional)
    5. 4.4 Geometric Distribution (Optional)
    6. 4.5 Hypergeometric Distribution (Optional)
    7. 4.6 Poisson Distribution (Optional)
    8. 4.7 Discrete Distribution (Playing Card Experiment)
    9. 4.8 Discrete Distribution (Lucky Dice Experiment)
    10. Key Terms
    11. Chapter Review
    12. Formula Review
    13. Practice
    14. Homework
    15. References
    16. Solutions
  6. 5 Continuous Random Variables
    1. Introduction
    2. 5.1 Continuous Probability Functions
    3. 5.2 The Uniform Distribution
    4. 5.3 The Exponential Distribution (Optional)
    5. 5.4 Continuous Distribution
    6. Key Terms
    7. Chapter Review
    8. Formula Review
    9. Practice
    10. Homework
    11. References
    12. Solutions
  7. 6 The Normal Distribution
    1. Introduction
    2. 6.1 The Standard Normal Distribution
    3. 6.2 Using the Normal Distribution
    4. 6.3 Normal Distribution—Lap Times
    5. 6.4 Normal Distribution—Pinkie Length
    6. Key Terms
    7. Chapter Review
    8. Formula Review
    9. Practice
    10. Homework
    11. References
    12. Solutions
  8. 7 The Central Limit Theorem
    1. Introduction
    2. 7.1 The Central Limit Theorem for Sample Means (Averages)
    3. 7.2 The Central Limit Theorem for Sums (Optional)
    4. 7.3 Using the Central Limit Theorem
    5. 7.4 Central Limit Theorem (Pocket Change)
    6. 7.5 Central Limit Theorem (Cookie Recipes)
    7. Key Terms
    8. Chapter Review
    9. Formula Review
    10. Practice
    11. Homework
    12. References
    13. Solutions
  9. 8 Confidence Intervals
    1. Introduction
    2. 8.1 A Single Population Mean Using the Normal Distribution
    3. 8.2 A Single Population Mean Using the Student's t-Distribution
    4. 8.3 A Population Proportion
    5. 8.4 Confidence Interval (Home Costs)
    6. 8.5 Confidence Interval (Place of Birth)
    7. 8.6 Confidence Interval (Women's Heights)
    8. Key Terms
    9. Chapter Review
    10. Formula Review
    11. Practice
    12. Homework
    13. References
    14. Solutions
  10. 9 Hypothesis Testing with One Sample
    1. Introduction
    2. 9.1 Null and Alternative Hypotheses
    3. 9.2 Outcomes and the Type I and Type II Errors
    4. 9.3 Distribution Needed for Hypothesis Testing
    5. 9.4 Rare Events, the Sample, and the Decision and Conclusion
    6. 9.5 Additional Information and Full Hypothesis Test Examples
    7. 9.6 Hypothesis Testing of a Single Mean and Single Proportion
    8. Key Terms
    9. Chapter Review
    10. Formula Review
    11. Practice
    12. Homework
    13. References
    14. Solutions
  11. 10 Hypothesis Testing with Two Samples
    1. Introduction
    2. 10.1 Two Population Means with Unknown Standard Deviations
    3. 10.2 Two Population Means with Known Standard Deviations
    4. 10.3 Comparing Two Independent Population Proportions
    5. 10.4 Matched or Paired Samples (Optional)
    6. 10.5 Hypothesis Testing for Two Means and Two Proportions
    7. Key Terms
    8. Chapter Review
    9. Formula Review
    10. Practice
    11. Homework
    12. Bringing It Together: Homework
    13. References
    14. Solutions
  12. 11 The Chi-Square Distribution
    1. Introduction
    2. 11.1 Facts About the Chi-Square Distribution
    3. 11.2 Goodness-of-Fit Test
    4. 11.3 Test of Independence
    5. 11.4 Test for Homogeneity
    6. 11.5 Comparison of the Chi-Square Tests
    7. 11.6 Test of a Single Variance
    8. 11.7 Lab 1: Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit
    9. 11.8 Lab 2: Chi-Square Test of Independence
    10. Key Terms
    11. Chapter Review
    12. Formula Review
    13. Practice
    14. Homework
    15. Bringing It Together: Homework
    16. References
    17. Solutions
  13. 12 Linear Regression and Correlation
    1. Introduction
    2. 12.1 Linear Equations
    3. 12.2 The Regression Equation
    4. 12.3 Testing the Significance of the Correlation Coefficient (Optional)
    5. 12.4 Prediction (Optional)
    6. 12.5 Outliers
    7. 12.6 Regression (Distance from School) (Optional)
    8. 12.7 Regression (Textbook Cost) (Optional)
    9. 12.8 Regression (Fuel Efficiency) (Optional)
    10. Key Terms
    11. Chapter Review
    12. Formula Review
    13. Practice
    14. Homework
    15. Bringing It Together: Homework
    16. References
    17. Solutions
  14. 13 F Distribution and One-way Anova
    1. Introduction
    2. 13.1 One-Way ANOVA
    3. 13.2 The F Distribution and the F Ratio
    4. 13.3 Facts About the F Distribution
    5. 13.4 Test of Two Variances
    6. 13.5 Lab: One-Way ANOVA
    7. Key Terms
    8. Chapter Review
    9. Formula Review
    10. Practice
    11. Homework
    12. References
    13. Solutions
  15. A | Appendix A Review Exercises (Ch 3–13)
  16. B | Appendix B Practice Tests (1–4) and Final Exams
  17. C | Data Sets
  18. D | Group and Partner Projects
  19. E | Solution Sheets
  20. F | Mathematical Phrases, Symbols, and Formulas
  21. G | Notes for the TI-83, 83+, 84, 84+ Calculators
  22. H | Tables
  23. Index

Recall the third exam/final exam example.

We found the equation of the best-fit line for the final exam grade as a function of the grade on the third exam. We can now use the least-squares regression line for prediction.

Suppose you want to estimate, or predict, the mean final exam score of statistics students who received a 73 on the third exam. The exam scores (x values) range from 65 to 75. Since 73 is between the x values 65 and 75, substitute x = 73 into the equation. Then,

y^ =−173.51+4.83(73)=179.08 . y^ =−173.51+4.83(73)=179.08 .

We predict that statistics students who earn a grade of 73 on the third exam will earn a grade of 179.08 on the final exam, on average.

Example 12.10

Recall the third exam/final exam example.

Problem

a. What would you predict the final exam score to be for a student who scored a 66 on the third exam?

Problem

b. What would you predict the final exam score to be for a student who scored a 90 on the third exam?

Try It 12.10

Data are collected on the relationship between the number of hours per week practicing a musical instrument and scores on a math test. The line of best fit is as follows:

ŷ = 72.5 + 2.8x.
What would you predict the score on a math test will be for a student who practices a musical instrument for five hours a week?

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