Learning Objectives
- Evaluate how neoclassical economists and Keynesian economists react to recessions
- Analyze the interrelationship between the neoclassical and Keynesian economic models
We can compare finding the balance between Keynesian and Neoclassical models to the challenge of riding two horses simultaneously. When a circus performer stands on two horses, with a foot on each one, much of the excitement for the viewer lies in contemplating the gap between the two. As modern macroeconomists ride into the future on two horses—with one foot on the short-term Keynesian perspective and one foot on the long-term neoclassical perspective—the balancing act may look uncomfortable, but there does not seem to be any way to avoid it. Each approach, Keynesian and neoclassical, has its strengths and weaknesses.
The short-term Keynesian model, built on the importance of aggregate demand as a cause of business cycles and a degree of wage and price rigidity, does a sound job of explaining many recessions and why cyclical unemployment rises and falls. By focusing on the short-run aggregate demand adjustments, Keynesian economics risks overlooking the long-term causes of economic growth or the natural rate of unemployment that exist even when the economy is producing at potential GDP.
The neoclassical model, with its emphasis on aggregate supply, focuses on the underlying determinants of output and employment in markets, and thus tends to put more emphasis on economic growth and how labor markets work. However, the neoclassical view is not especially helpful in explaining why unemployment moves up and down over short time horizons of a few years. Nor is the neoclassical model especially helpful when the economy is mired in an especially deep and long-lasting recession, like the 1930s Great Depression. Keynesian economics tends to view inflation as a price that might sometimes be paid for lower unemployment; neoclassical economics tends to view inflation as a cost that offers no offsetting gains in terms of lower unemployment.
Macroeconomics cannot, however, be summed up as an argument between one group of economists who are pure Keynesians and another group who are pure neoclassicists. Instead, many mainstream economists believe both the Keynesian and neoclassical perspectives. Robert Solow, the Nobel laureate in economics in 1987, described the dual approach in this way:
At short time scales, I think, something sort of ‘Keynesian’ is a good approximation, and surely better than anything straight ‘neoclassical.’ At very long time scales, the interesting questions are best studied in a neoclassical framework, and attention to the Keynesian side of things would be a minor distraction. At the five-to-ten-year time scale, we have to piece things together as best we can, and look for a hybrid model that will do the job.
Many modern macroeconomists spend considerable time and energy trying to construct models that blend the most attractive aspects of the Keynesian and neoclassical approaches. It is possible to construct a somewhat complex mathematical model where aggregate demand and sticky wages and prices matter in the short run, but wages, prices, and aggregate supply adjust in the long run. However, creating an overall model that encompasses both short-term Keynesian and long-term neoclassical models is not easy.
Bring It Home
Navigating Uncharted Waters—The Great Recession and Pandemic-Induced Recession of 2020
Were the policies that the government implemented to stabilize the economy and financial markets during the Great Recession of 2007–2009, and the pandemic-induced recession of 2020 effective? Many economists from both the Keynesian and neoclassical schools have found that they were, although to varying degrees. Regarding the Great Recession, Alan Blinder of Princeton University and Mark Zandi for Moody’s Analytics found that, without fiscal policy, GDP decline would have been significantly more than its 3.3% in 2008 followed by its 0.1% decline in 2009. They also estimated that there would have been 8.5 million more job losses had the government not intervened in the market with the TARP to support the financial industry and key automakers General Motors and Chrysler. Federal Reserve Bank economists Carlos Carvalho, Stefano Eusip, and Christian Grisse found in their study, Policy Initiatives in the Global Recession: What Did Forecasters Expect? that once the government implemented policies, forecasters adapted their expectations to these policies. They were more likely to anticipate increases in investment due to lower interest rates brought on by monetary policy and increased economic growth resulting from fiscal policy.
The neoclassical perspective can also shed light on the country’s experience with policy during the pandemic-induced recession of 2020. It was mentioned earlier that one criticism made by proponents of the neoclassical perspective is that government policy is often too slow to react to a recession. However after the pandemic hit, the federal government quickly responded with aid to state and local governments, increased unemployment insurance, aid to businesses forced to shut down, and stimulus checks to boost spending. There is no doubt that the economic fallout from the pandemic would have been much worse without these policies. Some economists even argue that the government helped too much and that the high inflation the U.S. economy experienced starting mid-2021 is due to the real output growing faster than potential, but it is too early (as of early 2022) to tell if that argument is correct.
By focusing on potential GDP instead of short-run demand, the neoclassical perspective also makes an important point about how the size of the economy determines its ability to grow. Since the pandemic hit, millions of workers have stayed out of the labor market due to early retirement, health and safety concerns, the availability of childcare, and school closures. As mentioned in Unemployment, these changes have caused labor force participation to remain lower than its historical average. The pandemic has also made it harder for future workers to acquire skills they need to be productive in the labor market. The longer these dynamics are at play, the more harm it will do to potential GDP.